Box Office India Trade Network
A disappointing year can only end on a high if both of last two major releases DILWALE and BAJIRAO MASTANI become super hit films but recent history suggests that in a clash there can be only one winner or two under performers. Though it is made out that if films are not similar and different genres they can co exist but that is not the case.
The last time a clash gave out real super hit films was ages back in the day of staggered releases where despite releasing on the same day, one film would release in Mumbai and the other in North or vice versa, this even saw three super hit films coming together. The little exception was DIL vs GHAYAL in 1990 but even here the former had raced ahead in first six months though GHAYAL more than made up in repeat runs as the Sunny Deol action image got stronger and stronger in the 90's. If it was not for this only DIL would have been the blockbuster film.
GADAR vs LAGAAN in 2001 is another example normally used to show that two films can co-exist but here LAGAAN was a loser in many circuits due to GADAR, it managed to survive due to super hit business in Mumbai and South but if it did not clash it would have become a major hit. This happened in the days of 300 screen releases when films could easily get the amount of screens needed which is not the case today when films are looking for 4000 screens.
In 2001, the perception was not through numbers so LAGAAN got away with it due to media perception but today its totally different scenario and neither DILWALE nor BAJIRAO MASTANI will want or rather can't afford to be a LAGAAN and loose the battle by a landslide as numbers will be there for all to see. In 2012 there was JAB TAK HAI JAAN and SON OF SARDAAR where both under performed but numbers were respectable but with the costs involverd here respectable numbers won't be enough.
Obviously its DILWALE that holds the upper hand, not just because of the star power but also because the director of BAJIRAO MASTAANI makes films that only only do well (if they do well) in some parts of the country and when you clash this limited market becomes even smaller. The film will have tobe super strong in content to have any chance of recovery.
The issues for DILWALE are different as it has potential to put up some records and that is what is expected from these event films but the clash is sort of irritation as the way business is today only a solo release can only hope of record be it opening day, weekend or circuit records.
The likely scenario will be one real winner and one loser or two under performers though they can give the industry major hope that clashes can happen and go on to do 400 crore nett plus between them but that would be biggest surprise of the year and chances are slim.